European Neighbourhood Policy and Economic Reforms in the Eastern Neighbourhood

The paper discusses the current and potential role of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in anchoring economic reforms in the countries of the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood. It claims that it is too early to assess the success of the ENP in this sphere especially given that the actual progress of the ENP agenda has been limited. A review of the empirical evidence on external reform anchors confirms that the ENP shares some features with the EU accession process that has proven to be an effective mechanism supporting major economic, political and social changes in the countries concerned. The eventual ENP economic offer is meaningful and integration with the EU is getting stronger public support in several CIS countries and among their political elites. On the other hand several factors limit the reform anchoring potential of the ENP. This paper offers recommendations on policies that could strengthen this potential.ENP, CIS, EU, political economy, economic reforms, reform anchoring

ECB Decision-making and the Status of the Eurogroup in an Enlarged EMU

This paper analyses the link between forthcoming EU enlargement and selected aspects of EU institutional reforms, namely decision making rules in the European Central Bank and the status of the Eurogroup. It argues that some earlier arguments calling for urgent ECB reform are based on unrealistic assumptions. It concludes that the reform recently adopted by the EU Council as well as the present system, while not free from shortcomings, could provide a workable environment for monetary policy in an enlarged EMU. Additionally, the paper claims that designing efficient institutional solutions for the EU Council is also important from the perspective of new member states as it might impact on their chances for early adoption of the common currency.ECB, Eurogroup, monetary policy, decision rules, EMU enlargement

Exchange Rate Regimes and the Real Sector: a Sectoral Analysis of CEE Countries

This paper analyses the impact of exchange rate regimes on the real sector. While most studies in this field have so far concentrated on aggregate variables, we pursue a sectoral approach distinguishing between the tradable and nontradable sectors. Firstly, we present a survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. This demonstrates that evaluations of exchange rate regimes and their impact on the real economy are largely dependant on specific assumptions concerning, in particular, the parameters of a utility function, the nature of the price adjustment process and the characteristics of analysed shocks. Secondly, we conduct an empirical analysis of the behaviour of the tradable and nontradable sectors under different exchange rate regimes for seven Central and Eastern European countries. We find no firm evidence of a differential impact of given exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of output and prices in the two sectors. We proffer a conceptual and technical interpretation of this.exchange rate regimes, Central and Eastern European countries, dynamic panels

Regional Free Trade Agreements of Bosnia and Herzegovina: analysis and policy recommendations

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the free trade agreements between Bosnia and Herzegovina and its regional partners of the SEE Stability Pact process. It identifies the key determinants of BiH's imports and exports in the gravity model framework and describes the trade barriers that were identified during interviews with BiH companies and other stakeholders. The concluding section contains specific recommendations for general and trade-specific policies that could help in better realising the BiH trade potential, in relations with its CEFTA 2006 partners but also the EU an other countries.Bosnia and Herzegovina, foreign frade, FTA

Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation, Part I. OSW Report, June 2007

The start of accession negotiations between Ankara and the EU is vital for the future of both Turkey and the Union, including Poland as its member state, as well as for the geopolitical situation in Eurasia (the Black Sea region, Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East). Appreciating the significance of these issues, the Centre for Eastern Studies in early 2005 decided to launch a project entitled "Turkey after the start of negotiations with the European Union - foreign relations and the domestic situation". The goal of this project is to present, within the context of accession negotiations, Turkey's greatest internal challenges as well as Ankara's relations with its neighbour regions, the EU and the USA. This Report is the first of three which will be published as part of the project. The Report includes texts on Turkish-US relations since 2003, major political and social challenges on Turkey's path towards the EU and the current condition of the Turkish economy. The Report was developed between July 2005 and November 2006, over which time CES workers and associates searched for publicly available materials in Poland, Turkey and EU countries, and went on three research trips to Turkey, where they met local researchers, analysts, politicians and officials. The authors of the Report would like to express their gratitude to everyone who have shared their opinions with them, and to the Polish Embassy in Ankara, especially to Ambassador Grzegorz Michalski and Minister Andrzej Ananicz for their expert support and assistance in the authors' work on this Report. This Report does not present the official stance of the Polish government on the issues discussed therein; instead it reflects the personal views of its authors, who have made their best efforts to ensure that their work is reliable

The New EU Frontier: Perspectives on Enhanced Economic Integration

The central objective of this report is to identify the best forms of enhanced economic integration that could be pursued over the next 5-10 years between the EU and five of its important neighbour countries: Ukraine, Russia, Egypt, Morocco and Algeria. The report starts from reviewing existing forms of economic integration and time dependencies between them. It then discusses in more detail institutional requirements for alternative options of deepening co-operation with the EU neighbour countries. Subsequently, likely effects of economic integration are discussed. Special sections are devoted to the energy cooperation with Russia, Algeria and Ukraine and to the EU financial assistance to its neighbourhood. The report concludes with policy recommendations that could be relevant for the development of the European Neighbourhood Policy and also for pursuing business opportunities in the EU neighbourhood.ENP, economic integration, EU Neighbourhood

Bosnia and Herzegovina - Meeting Copenhagen economic criteria for accession to the EU

Delegation of the European Commission based in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) granted the consortium represented by ECORYS a contract for EU support to the Economic Policy Research Unit, a subdivision of the Economic Policy Planning Unit of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina. As part of this project activities a subproject was designed trying to assess the position of BH against the benchmarks of the Copenhagen economic criteria and to identify policy measures for meeting the criteria. The issues of particular relevance to the project included: presentation of the Copenhagen economic criteria, analysis of the existing situation in the country, strategic and policy documents addressing the subject, identification of gaps to be filled in order to achieve the benchmark, and policy recommendations. In July, 2006 ECORYS appointed the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), an international, non-profit research and advisory institution, to research on the subject. The research project team comprised experts: Messrs. Rafa³ Antczak (team leader), Wojciech Paczyñski, and Ranko Markuš, Mmes. Ma³gorzata Antczak and Karina Kostrzewa, assisted by Mr. Erol Mujanovic. The report was based on available national account and microeconomic data, strategic and policy documents of the BH governmental bodies, relevant reports by international organisations, EU institutions, academic and research centres and opinions of key stakeholders. The analytical research on the economic developments in BH by international financial institutions, especially the IMF and World Bank, as well as domestic bodies, especially the Economic Policy Research Unit, was extensively exploited in the research. However, the primary focus of the research was on structural and institutional aspects facilitating or impeding functioning of a market economy in the BH and country's capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU. Therefore, the report focuses on background analysis of economic factors influencing the functioning of market economy and the capacity to withstand the competition in the EU market. The research consists of four main parts. In Part 1, the Copenhagen economic criteria are presented in a comparative perspective of the recent experiences of the new member states and acceding countries to allow diagnosing of the most important gaps to be filled by BH. Part 2 analyses macroeconomic developments in BH, presenting them in a comparative perspective relative to EU candidate countries. The special focus is on two fields where BH faces particularly difficult challenges: labour market and foreign trade. Also, the three scenarios of BH catching-up with the EU are presented. Privatisation process which is one of the most important institutional and structural features of every transition economy and especially relevant from the perspective of meeting the Copenhagen criteria is analysed in Part 3. Part 4 comprises analysis of microeconomic developments in BH with the elements of the financial analysis of enterprises, both state and private. The financial analysis of enterprises concentrates on current situation and identification of trends in microeconomic developments to identify comparative advantages, assess productivity, and to position the BH enterprise sector towards the potential competition on the EU markets. Finally, Part 5 includes policy recommendations for decision makers both from the BH government and the EC. The research is supplemented by the Annexes providing background pieces of information on the analysed topics. The project team established contacts with representatives of international organizations, the BH governmental bodies, and research community in BH to collect pieces of information and consult on research topics. However, the authors of the researchers bear the sole responsibility for the pieces of information and opinions presented in the report.Bosnia and Herzegovina, Copenhagen criteria, EU accession, European integration, competitiveness

Energy Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and CIS Countries

The report reviews key issues in energy trade and cooperation between the EU and CIS countries. It describes historical trends of oil and gas demand in the EU, other European and CIS countries and offers demand forecasts until 2030. Recent developments in oil and gas production and exports from Russia and Caspian countries are covered in detail leading to the discussion of the likely export potential of these regions. The key factors determining the production outlook, trade-offs and competition related to energy resources transportation choices are also discussed. The report also covers the interests and role of transit countries in relations between producer and consumer regions. The analytical section leads to policy recommendations that focus mainly on the EU.energy supply, energy demand, gas and oil resources, Caspian countries, EU, Russia, Caucasus.